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07 September 2012 Written by
Clinton's masterful attack on Paul Ryan's   (Credit: Jim Young/Reuters)
The Democratic National Convention has made a conspicuous show of presenting women speakers and addressing issues that most concern women’s bodies — so much so that conservative toolbag Erick Erickson recently referred to the proceedings as “the Vagina Monologues.” So leave it to Bill Clinton to nut things up. It was the sound bite of the night on Wednesday, the word that, as soon as it was uttered, exploded across the audience both in the auditorium in Charlotte and in living rooms across the land. In the midst of a quintessentially Clintonesque speech – a monologue of pummeling precision, folksy rhetoric and exhausting duration — the former president launched into a rebuttal of Paul Ryan’s claims that Barack Obama has been ravaging Medicare. “When congressman Ryan looked into the TV camera and attacked President Obama’s Medicare savings as the ‘biggest, coldest power play,’ I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry,” he shrugged. “Because, that $716 billion is exactly, to the dollar, the same amount of Medicare savings that he had in his own budget.” And then came the killer ad-lib: “You got to (admit) one thing — it takes some brass to attack a guy for doing what you did.” The line – and Clinton’s amused, “Can you believe these guys?” delivery – was a standout of frankness even in a convention that’s featuring the notoriously blunt Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Vice President Joe Biden. In other words, it was quite a feat. And if you have any doubt of the impact of that off-the-cuff remark, watch the clip and note Michelle Obama’s face after Clinton said it – her mix of wry appreciation for the sentiment and pure disgust for the subject. The phrase resonated, of course, because “brass” is only half of it. What Clinton was unmistakably announcing to the entire world on Wednesday evening was that Paul Ryan has balls. Balls of solid metal. And in an instant, Clinton reminded us that the way we talk about each other – whether admiringly or disparagingly – so often comes down to terms for what’s between our legs. He put the youthful, fitness-obsessed would-be vice president directly in his cross hairs and fired the shot. This is about your masculinity, bro. As politics so often is.
We call a man a pussy when he’s weak and a dick when he’s petty and rude. But when we say he has balls or any variation thereof, it is a fantastically mixed assessment. (And when we say a woman has them, as Clinton’s wife, Hillary, has so often been accused, it’s even more so.) It can be a term of quiet awe or supreme exasperation. It’s a phrase that says, “You’re a bold one, all right. Maybe a little too bold for your own — or anyone else’s — good.” Bull’s-eye. Clinton’s “brass” comment articulated succinctly exactly what it is about not just Ryan but the whole of the right’s current rhetoric. It is just … so … ballsy. These guys will flagrantly make stuff upabout how Obama is raiding Medicare and blame him for a GM plant closed under George W. Bush and “locked up and empty to this day.” They are aligned with, as Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren passionately stated, the “Wall Street CEOs — the same ones who wrecked our economy and destroyed millions of jobs,” who still strut around Congress, no shame, demanding favors, and acting like we should thank them.” They’ll lead an all-male panel of female contraception. They’re so brazen they’ll even brag of their elite marathon times, though the truth is very far from their claims. But what do they care? As Romney pollster Neil Newhouse brashly says, “We’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact-checkers.” So, sure, they may be spreading falsehoods galore and trying to savage the economy and our reproductive freedom, but you’ve got to admit, that much fearless entitlement must require nads of steel. Clinton’s remark about Ryan’s brass may have been a flippant one, but he’s not a man who says anything by accident. He knew the power of his statement and touched a nerve because, in his explainer-in-chief way, he gave so many Americans watching their “What he said” moment. He reminded us that brass may make a man bold, but it also makes him cold and immutable. He went directly to the center of the conservative movement’s arrogant, willful machismo. And in one word, he said it all.  
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Mary Elizabeth WilliamsMary Elizabeth Williams is a staff writer for Salon and the author of "Gimme Shelter: My Three Years Searching for the American Dream." Follow her on Twitter: @embeedub.MORE MARY ELIZABETH WILLIAMS.
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07 September 2012 Written by
  Next Four Years     It wasn’t even the best speech of the week, never mind his career. Instead, President Barack Obama’s acceptance speech last night at the Democratic National Convention in CharlotteNorth Carolina, was a prosaic call for support accompanied by some vague plans for action. Now it is up to Obama and his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, to fill in the details that will help voters choose between them. Convention speeches, we concede, are not policy briefings. (Though former President Bill Clinton’s defense of Obama’s record on Wednesday -- along with Michelle Obama’s defense of her husband’s character, the best speech of the week -- came pretty close.) Still, there is room for more specifics than Obama provided last night, or Romney did last week. Obama’s greatest missed opportunity may have been his cursory treatment of the federal budget deficit: He reiterated his plan to reduce it by $4 trillion over the next decade. What no one knows -- does the president? -- is how to get there from here. On other topics, Obama was better. His discussion of foreign policy was effective, in real terms because he has achievements to brag about, and in relative terms because Romney’s last week was onion-paper-thin (it was about four paragraphs). On climate change, even if it was a throwaway line, it was nice to hear the U.S. president state baldly that it “is not a hoax”; if he wins re-election, maybe he can reopen the issue of a carbon tax. It would be churlish to criticize Obama too much for vagueness, given the occasion. Yet that was the curious thing about this speech: If it didn’t get down into the details, neither did it soar. The best single line was Abraham Lincoln’s -- “I have been driven to my knees many times by the overwhelming conviction that I had no place else to go” -- and there was nothing comparable to Obama’s eloquence in his speeches at the 2004 and 2008 conventions. Maybe we’re just spoiled. But it’s also possible that Americans this year are not looking for inspiration so much as reassurance. If that’s the case, then the argument for a more substantive campaign is all the stronger. It may be foolish, if not naive, to hope for a wonky presidential campaign. Happy platitudes are the lingua franca of politics -- and knowing the difference between pleasingly vague and utterly vacuous is an occupational requirement for a politician. Which candidate called the U.S. “the greatest country in the history of the world” in his acceptance speech, and which called it merely “the greatest nation on Earth”? Is there a difference? Does it matter? How will they describe the U.S. tomorrow? Discuss. Actually, let’s not. Let’s stipulate that it is often difficult to get candidates to be specific, and that they may even occasionally have valid reasons not to be. Let’s further stipulate that politicians sometimes say things (we’re being kind here) for convenience sake, and that they may even occasionally have valid reasons for changing their minds. Finally, there are the interests of the audience to consider: MSNBC and Fox News are more popular than C-Span, and probably always will be. None of it matters. It’s not as if we have any other choice. For the past two weeks, each party has busied itself with characterizations of the other’s (apocalyptic, of course) plans. Both candidates have sketched out broad visions of where they would like to lead the U.S. It’s past time for them to start explaining more precisely how they plan to get there. Obama and Romney are scheduled to have three debates this fall that will provide them 5 1/2 hours of serious argument over three weeks. The debates aren’t until next month, but the candidates should feel free to begin their discussion now. Read more opinion online from Bloomberg View. Subscribe to receive a daily e-mail highlighting new View columns, editorials and op-ed articles. Today’s highlights: the editors on the European Central Bank’s new bond-buying plan and on why the U.S. needs to pay more attention to APEC; Stephen L. Carter on “hopefully” and otherdesecrations of the English language; William Pesek on a Romney presidency causing no worries in ChinaJonathan Weil on how low can Facebook shares goSteven Greenhut on whyCalifornia is broken, not broke.
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07 September 2012 Written by
    Companies hired 96,000 workers in August, down from 141,000 in July, the Commerce Department said in its widely-watched report. The tally lagged the 130,000 forecast by economists. A separate survey showed the unemployment rate fell to 8.1pc from 8.3pc, though economists said much of that was down to people giving up the search for work.
The weak pace of hiring is in sharp contrast to the first quarter of the year, when an average of 226,000 Americans found job a month. That pace slowed to 73,000 in the second quarter and, despite a pick-up in July, few economists expect that rate to recover strongly over the rest of the year as Americans face the uncertainty of what the presidential election means for tax rates and government spending next year.
America's services sector, the largest part of the economy, accounted for the bulk of the hiring. Manufacturing, one of the brighter parts of the recovery, lost 15,000 jobs, while 7,000 jobs went from the public sector.
The monthly snapshot of the labour market will gather even greater attention as November's election draws nearer. With unemployment remaining above 8pc since he took office, the difficulty Americans are having in finding jobs has become a lightning rod for criticism of President Barack Obama.
Republican challenger Mitt Romney is staking his bid for The White House on a promise he will create 12m jobs over the next four years.
Friday's report will also do little to dissuade Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke from introducing fresh monetary stimulus for the economy. The central bank, which is tasked with lifting employment as well as controlling prices, expects the unemployment rate to stay close to 8pc next year. Mr Bernanke last month used a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming to signal his willingness to do more for an economy whose growth slowed to 1.5pc in the second quarter from 1.9pc in the first three months of the year.
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07 September 2012 Written by
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has taken a bold step this week to contain the euro crisis. The ECB is now planning unlimited bond purchases in order to prevent an escalation of the euro's woes. The step marks a fundamental shift in efforts to save the common currency -- and comes with plenty of risks. The big moment almost fell through at the last minute. Thirty minutes before Mario Draghi planned to announce a turning point in the two-and-a-half year drama to rescue the euro, the fire alarm in the Euro Tower in Frankfurt went off. The elevators in the entire European Central Bank headquarters were placed out of service and two fire trucks arrived at the scene. It turned out to be a false alarm and the emergency vehicles drove away a short time later.  
It added a bit of tension that the central bankers could well have done without. There had already been enough pressure in the run-up to what may have been the most important meeting in the ECB's history. The 22 members of the ECB's Governing Council had to decide on a program that many experts believe is no less than the solution to the euro crisis -- but which others are viewing as the greatest sin yet committed within the common currency zone.   Following Thursday's decision, the ECB now plans to purchase sovereign bonds from crisis-plagued euro-zone countries in unlimited quantities. Given that the ECB can literally print money, it essentially has unlimited means to buy bonds, thereby, it is hoped, driving down yields on those securities and lessening the interest rate burdens of the affected countries. ECB President Draghi said the Governing Council had approved the plan with an "overwhelming majority". Jens Weidmann, the head of Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, had opposed the move, but he was ultimately outvoted. Merkel Airs Concerns Reactions to the ECB's move varied on Thursday. Financial markets and the International Monetary Fund welcomed the decision. But skeptics of the plan, particularly those in Germany, expressed their reserve. Chancellor Angela Merkel declared that such measures could "not replace" political activities within the currency zone. Bundesbank officials also expressed their displeasure with the development. Weidmann has been warning against the program for weeks now, and on Thursday he became the only member of the Governing Council to vote against the bond-buying program. In Weidmann's view, bond purchases through the ECB "are too close to state financing via the money presses," a Bundesbank spokesman said. The debate over the purchase of sovereign bonds may at first appear to be a technical one, but in truth it is about something far more fundamental: European unity. Of course, it is also about money. In the future, will the euro remain the currency in which we pay our electricity bills and our mortgages? And what value will the euro still have over time if the central bank is able to make money materialize out of nowhere -- the same money most Europeans work very hard for -- and then pass it on to financially troubled governments? Draghi: 'Euro Is Irreversible' Draghi has obligated himself to answer the first question with a "yes". "The euro is irreversible," the Italian said, and he wants to make that clear to investors and financial markets with the new bond-buying program. A kind of self-fulfilling prophecy had taken hold on the financial markets in recent months -- everyone was expecting things to get worse, and so they did. That led to the situation where countries like Spain and Italy were forced to pay ever-higher interest rates when they attempted to borrow money by issuing bonds. The ECB president said the high yields are the product of "unfounded fears" on the part of many investors. Now, he said, the ECB needs to "break these expectations." The first evidence that it may succeed in doing so could be seen in recent weeks after Draghi first hinted at the possibility of a bond-buying program at the end of July. Since then, bond yields have been slowly dropping. The bank is calculating that just the prospect of a large-scale ECB intervention will be enough to lower interest rates and that, in the best case scenario, it won't actually have to buy bonds. The announcement itself could be enough to calm investors. But what if it isn't? Then the ECB will be forced to go down a path that is paved with risks. Europe has never seen a program like this before, and it is almost impossible to predict the consequences. Critics of the program are focussing on three main points:  
  • The ECB is relieving crisis-ridden countries of fiscal responsibility because the bond buying could threaten to eliminate pressure for them to reduce their deficits and control their spending.
  • If it conducts mass bond buys, the ECB will flood the economy with money and risk causing a devaluation of the currency -- in other words, inflation.
  • The central bank will violate its mandate because it is effectively financing states, which it is expressly prohibited from doing under current European Union treaties. This, they argue, will make it the stooge of euro-zone governments, jeopardizing its independence.
  On Thursday, Draghi attempted to refute all of these points. Indeed, the new program has been tailored in a way that it already addresses much of the criticism.  
  • In order to ensure that pressure for reforms is still applied to countries like Spain and Italy, strict conditions will be attached to the bond purchases. The ECB will only intervene in the first place if a country agrees to submit to a structural adjustment program administered by the European Stability Mechanism, the permanent euro bailout fund that is expected to begin operating soon. In other words, the central bank will only provide assistance if countries commit themselves to strict austerity.
  • The ECB also countered fears of inflation with the announcement that money that is pumped into the economy will later be removed at other places -- through the sales of securities or through regular lending to banks, for example. The problem here, however, is that the more money the central bank pumps into the system, the harder it becomes to get it back later.
  • The arguments made by the ECB president to counter critics were perhaps weakest when it came to the claim that the bond-buying program is tantamount to providing direct financing to states. Draghi said the primary purpose behind the bond purchases is to make monetary policy in the euro zone functional again. "We are sure that we are acting within our mandate," he said. The crisis, he said, has distorted the mechanisms the central bank generally uses to ensure that money gets pumped into the economy -- and the "monetary policy transmission mechanism" needs to be repaired. To emphasize that, he said the ECB would only be purchasing short-term bonds with maturities of one to three years. He also said that European treaties explicitly prohibit the purchase of bonds on the primary market, but not on the secondary market, as the ECB plans.
  'The ECB Will Retain Its Independence'  
He also took pains to address concerns the ECB is giving up its sovereignty in decision-making. "The ECB will retain its independence throughout," Draghi said on Thursday. It almost sounded like a mantra. Still, it can't change the fact that the central bank is actually yielding a piece of its independence. That is inevitable -- the simple fact that the ECB is linking its market interventions to the ESM's restructuring program makes it vulnerable to pressure from member governments. But that is probably the minimum price Europe will have to pay to save the euro.   It is also still uncertain whether the plan can actually be implemented for legal reasons. The answer is likely to come next week when, on Sept. 12, Germany's Federal Constitutional Court is expected to rule on complaints against the creation of the permanent ESM bailout fund. The ECB's bond buying program can only commence if Germany's highest court rules that the ESM is compatible with the German constitution. If the court rules against the ESM, those seeking to save the euro will have to go back to square one and drum up new ideas. Asked by a reporter on Thursday what he would do if the court rejects the ESM, Draghi offered an unsurprising answer. "We really have taken these decisions with total independence," he said.  
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06 September 2012 Written by

Impression left by announcement on unlimited bond buying is that it is technically sound – but based on flawed economics

    • Mario Draghi
Analysts have doubts about the mechanics of Draghi's plan and the logic behind his strategy. Photograph: Michael Probst/AP
Mario Draghi has done his bit. As promised, the European Central Bankwill wade into the financial markets in an attempt to hold together the single currency until the politicians get their act together and agree on steps towards closer political union. That's the good news. The bad news is that the Draghi blueprint will not be enough to save the euro. The impression left by Thursday's announcement on unlimited bond buying was that it was technically sound but based on flawed economics. The ECB will deploy its firepower to bring down interest rates on the borrowings of troubled members of the single currency provided the governments of the supplicant states agree to "strict and effective" conditions. Beneath his urbane exterior Draghi is one tough cookie and he has forced his plan through the ECB despite the opposition of the Bundesbank, something that would have been seen as impossible a few months ago. The Germans threw their toys out of the pram after Draghi's announcement, making clear they thought the blueprint could be costly for European – aka German – taxpayers. The Bundesbank's Jens Weidmann was a lone voice at the ECB council meeting and Draghi now has the authority to act. Make no mistake, the ECB has very deep pockets. Immediate action is out of the question. The ECB will only move when countries have signed up to their structural adjustment programmes, and that will take time. When the bond buying begins, the ECB will remove money from elsewhere in the system to ensure there is no increase in money supply. This process, known as sterilisation, is a small victory for the Bundesbank. Markets worried that Draghi would deliver less than he has been promising. That he lived up to expectations meant the financial markets rallied, but even before Draghi had finished speaking analysts were expressing doubts both about the mechanics of the plan and the logic behind the strategy. The ECB's president brushed aside questions at his press conference about what he would do if Spain, for example, signed up to "strict and effective" conditions to trigger bond buying but then decided the conditions were too difficult to implement. In those circumstances, would the ECB really start selling Spanish bonds at a heavy loss? Gary Jenkins of Swordfish Research said this would be like the ECB putting a gun to its own head and pulling the trigger. A bigger problem is the economic thinking behind the plan. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris said on Thursday that Italy's economy will shrink by 2.4% this year. In Spain youth unemployment is more than 50%, the banks are tottering under the weight of bad debts from a bombed-out housing market, and private capital is leaving the country at an alarming rate. Greece's economy is 20% smaller than it was four years ago. Put simply, Greece is in depression, Spain on the brink and Italy heading that way. The "rescue" plan involves governments in Rome and Italy driving their economies deeper into depression to reduce the interest rates they pay on their borrowing. The ECB seems to think that the reason investors are giving Italy and Spain the cold shoulder is that they are not cutting hard enough, fast enough. Steeped in economic orthodoxy, Draghi makes George Osborne look like a paid-up member of the Maynard Keynes appreciation society.   The reason investors demand high interest rates when they lend to Italy and Spain is their concern about the impact of permanent recession on public finances and banks. A rescue plan that has at its core more demand-destroying measures will do more harm than good. To sum up, Draghi has bought Europe a bit more time. The can has been kicked a few metres down the road. He has done so by incurring the wrath of the Bundesbank and will know that if this fails, there is little more the ECB can do. Fail it almost certainly will, because success means more than knocking half a percentage point off Italian and Spanish bond yields. It means solving the growth and competitiveness problems of the weaker eurozone countries and convincing their increasingly alienated people that Europe has more to offer than endless misery.
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06 September 2012 Written by

Introductory statement to the press conference

Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 6 September 2012

Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the President of the Eurogroup, Prime Minister Juncker, and by the Commission Vice-President, Mr Rehn. Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. Owing to high energy prices and increases in indirect taxes in some euro area countries, inflation rates are expected to remain above 2% throughout 2012, to fall below that level again in the course of next year and to remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon. Consistent with this picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area economy continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Economic growth in the euro area is expected to remain weak, with the ongoing tensions in financial markets and heightened uncertainty weighing on confidence and sentiment. A renewed intensification of financial market tensions would have the potential to affect the balance of risks for both growth and inflation. It is against this background that the Governing Council today decided on the modalities for undertaking Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs) in secondary markets for sovereign bonds in the euro area. As we said a month ago, we need to be in the position to safeguard the monetary policy transmission mechanism in all countries of the euro area. We aim to preserve the singleness of our monetary policy and to ensure the proper transmission of our policy stance to the real economy throughout the area. OMTs will enable us to address severe distortions in government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro. Hence, under appropriate conditions, we will have a fully effective backstop to avoid destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for price stability in the euro area. Let me repeat what I said last month: we act strictly within our mandate to maintain price stability over the medium term; we act independently in determining monetary policy; and the euro is irreversible. In order to restore confidence, policy-makers in the euro area need to push ahead with great determination with fiscal consolidation, structural reforms to enhance competitiveness and European institution-building. At the same time, governments must stand ready to activate the EFSF/ESM in the bond market when exceptional financial market circumstances and risks to financial stability exist – with strict and effective conditionality in line with the established guidelines. The adherence of governments to their commitments and the fulfilment by the EFSF/ESM of their role are necessary conditions for our outright transactions to be conducted and to be effective. Details of the Outright Monetary Transactions are described in a separate press release. Furthermore, the Governing Council took decisions with a view to ensuring the availability of adequate collateral in Eurosystem refinancing operations. The details of these measures are also elaborated in a separate press release. Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Recently published statistics indicate that euro area real GDP contracted by 0.2%, quarter on quarter, in the second quarter of 2012, following zero growth in the previous quarter. Economic indicators point to continued weak economic activity in the remainder of 2012, in an environment of heightened uncertainty. Looking beyond the short term, we expect the euro area economy to recover only very gradually. The growth momentum is expected to remain dampened by the necessary process of balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors, the existence of high unemployment and an uneven global recovery. The September 2012 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area foresee annual real GDP growth in a range between -0.6% and -0.2% for 2012 and between -0.4% and 1.4% for 2013. Compared with the June 2012 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the ranges for 2012 and 2013 have been revised downwards. The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area are assessed to be on the downside. They relate, in particular, to the tensions in several euro area financial markets and their potential spillover to the euro area real economy. These risks should be contained by effective action by all euro area policy-makers. Euro area annual HICP inflation was 2.6% in August 2012, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, compared with 2.4% in the previous month. This increase is mainly due to renewed increases in euro-denominated energy prices. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, inflation rates could turn out somewhat higher than expected a few months ago, but they should decline to below 2% again in the course of next year. Over the policy-relevant horizon, in an environment of modest growth in the euro area and well-anchored long-term inflation expectations, underlying price pressures should remain moderate. The September 2012 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area foresee annual HICP inflation in a range between 2.4% and 2.6% for 2012 and between 1.3% and 2.5% for 2013. These projection ranges are somewhat higher than those contained in the June 2012 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. Risks to the outlook for price developments continue to be broadly balanced over the medium term. Upside risks pertain to further increases in indirect taxes owing to the need for fiscal consolidation. The main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker than expected growth in the euro area, particularly resulting from a further intensification of financial market tensions, and its effects on the domestic components of inflation. If not contained by effective action by all euro area policy-makers, such intensification has the potential to affect the balance of risks on the downside. Turning to the monetary analysis, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remained subdued. The annual growth rate of M3 increased to 3.8% in July 2012, up from 3.2% in June. The rise in M3 growth was mainly attributable to a higher preference for liquidity, as reflected in the further increase in the annual growth rate of the narrow monetary aggregate M1 to 4.5% in July, from 3.5% in June. The annual growth rate of loans to the private sector (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) remained weak at 0.5% in July (after 0.3% in June). Annual growth in MFI loans to both non-financial corporations and households remained subdued, at -0.2% and 1.1% respectively (both adjusted for loan sales and securitisation). To a large extent, subdued loan growth reflects a weak outlook for GDP, heightened risk aversion and the ongoing adjustment in the balance sheets of households and enterprises, all of which weigh on credit demand. Furthermore, in a number of euro area countries, the segmentation of financial markets and capital constraints for banks continue to weigh on credit supply. Looking ahead, it is essential for banks to continue to strengthen their resilience where this is needed. The soundness of banks’ balance sheets will be a key factor in facilitating both an appropriate provision of credit to the economy and the normalisation of all funding channels. To sum up, the economic analysis indicates that price developments should remain in line with price stability over the medium term. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms this picture. lthough good progress is being made, the need for structural and fiscal adjustment remains significant in many European countries. On the structural side, further swift and decisive product and labour market reforms are required across the euro area to improve competitiveness, increase adjustment capacities and achieve higher sustainable growth rates. These structural reforms will also complement and support fiscal consolidation and debt sustainability. On the fiscal front, it is crucial that governments undertake all measures necessary to achieve their targets for the current and coming years. In this respect, the expected rapid implementation of the fiscal compact should be a main element to help strengthen confidence in the soundness of public finances. Finally, pushing ahead with European institution-building with great determination is essential. We are now at your disposal for questions.
European Central Bank Directorate Communications Press and Information Division Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main Tel.: +49 69 1344 7455, Fax: +49 69 1344 7404 Internet: http://www.ecb.europa.eu
Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged.
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06 September 2012 Written by
An employee uses a crane to move tank tops for oil tanks in the fabrication area at Westerman Companies Inc., a company that manufactures oil tanks for the fracking industry in Bremen, Ohio, on Sept. 4, 2012.
Claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in a month and American companies added more workers than forecast, easing concern the labor market may be stagnating.   Jobless claims decreased by 12,000 to 365,000 in the week ended Sept. 1, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. Private employers expanded payrolls by 201,000 in August, according to figures from Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Employer Services, exceeding the 140,000 median gain forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey. Another report showing U.S. services expanded at a fasterpace boosted the outlook one day before the Labor Department releases data on a job market that Federal Reserve ChairmanBen S. Bernanke has said is cause for “grave concern.” Stocks rallied after the figures and as European Central Bank policy makers agreed to an unlimited bond-purchase program to ease the region’s debt crisis. “We’re starting to see some stability in the labor market,” saidWard McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies & Co. Inc. in New York, who correctly forecast the level of jobless claims. “The labor market is that it continues to move in the right direction, but probably not as fast as Fed officials would like. We’re going to get a better handle on that tomorrow.” The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 1.9 percent to 1,430.25 at 12:02 p.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note increased to 1.67 percent from 1.60 percent late yesterday. The ECB’s bond-buying program “will enable us to address severe distortions” in government debt markets, PresidentMario Draghi said at a press conference after the central bank held its benchmark rate at a record low of 0.75 percent.

Europe Contraction

The economy of the 17-member euro area contracted in the second quarter as consumers cut spending and corporate investment slumped. Gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent from the first quarter, the European Union’s statistics office said, confirming an initial estimate published on Aug. 14. Unemployment claims in the U.S. were forecast to decline to 370,000, according to the median estimate of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Labor Department revised the previous week’s figure up to 377,000, from an initially reported 374,000. Employers are limiting firings as demand warrants holding on to current workers, helping support consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy. At the same time, weak hiring and unemployment exceeding 8 percent are reasons why Bernanke said last week that further easing remains an option.

‘Right Direction’

“Clearly, the direction of claims is encouraging,” said Millan Mulraine, a senior U.S. strategist at TD Securities in New York. The improvement “doesn’t seem to be substantial, but we are moving in the right direction.” Companies including Lexmark International Inc. (LXK), Revlon Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), and Google Inc. (GOOG) have announced plans to cut staff. Others are benefiting from improving demand. Railroad Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) in Norfolk, Virginia, has been helped by a surge in pickup truck sales. “We look at the economy as fairly stable at this point,” Dave Denton, chief executive officer of Woonsocket, Rhode Island-based CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS), the largest provider ofprescription drugs in the U.S., said at a Sept. 5 conference. Another report today showed elevated unemployment and rising gasoline prices kept consumer confidence little changed near an eight-month low last week.

Consumer Sentiment

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was at minus 46.5 in the period ended Sept. 2 compared with minus 47.3 in the prior week. It was the fifth consecutive week the index has registered a reading lower than minus 40, a level typically associated with severe economic discontent. Tomorrow’s Labor Department report may show overall hiring, which includes government jobs, climbed by 130,000 in August after a gain of 163,000 in July, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Private payrolls rose by 140,000, and the jobless rate probably remained at 8.3 percent for a second month, according to Bloomberg surveys. The unemployment rate has stayed above 8 percent since February 2009. The agency will release the figures the day after President Barack Obama is scheduled to accept the Democratic Party’s nomination for a second term. The state of the economy is at the center of the campaign, with Obama defending his record and Republican candidate for president Mitt Romney saying a change in leadership and policy is needed to spur the expansion and put more Americans back to work.

ADP Projections

Economists had forecast that today’s ADP report, which is based on data from businesses with more than 21 million workers on payrolls, would show an increase of 140,000 private jobs in August, according to a Bloomberg survey. Since April 2010, ADP’s initial estimate has either overstated or understated the Labor Department’s first reading on private payrolls by 69,000 on average. The average miss for the Bloomberg survey’s median forecast of economists was 58,000. A sustained pickup in service industries will help make up for three straight months of contraction in manufacturing and may create more employment opportunities. The Tempe, Arizona-based Institute for Supply Management today said its non-manufacturing index climbed to a three-month high of 53.7 from 52.6 in July. Readings above 50 signal expansion, and economists projected 52.5 for August, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The ISM services survey covers industries ranging from utilities and construction to health care and finance. The survey’s employment gauge rose to 53.8, the highest since April, from 49.3 in the prior month. Stronger retail sales, along with a pickup in the housing market, have helped sustain growth in the services industry. In July, retail purchases advanced 0.8 percent, the most since February, Commerce Department data show. Auto demand has also fared well, with sales of cars and light trucks rising to an annual rate of 14.5 million in August, the best in three years.
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06 September 2012 Written by

Mario Draghi has defied German opposition and launched an “unlimited” bond buying programme by the European Central Bank (ECB) that he said would provide a “fully effective backstop” to the stricken eurozone economies.

  Mario Draghi defies Germany with launch of 'fully effective backstop' for euro
Mario Draghi confirmed that the new programme would be unlimited in the amount of bonds it could buy and would have conditions attached.
The president of the ECB said the decision to unleash the new action, which will be called Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT), had not been unanimous.
He refused to confirm that the “one dissenter” on the ECB’s Governing Council was Jens Weidmann, head of the Bundesbank, but repeatedly told reporters that both he and the bank were “independent”. “I am who I am,” he said.
Shortly after the ECB announcement, Philipp Roesler, Germany’s economic minister, said: “It is all the more important to attach conditions to the current temporary bond purchases and to lay out as quickly as possible the exact nature of these conditions for individual countries.”
Mr Draghi confirmed that the new programme would be unlimited in the amount of bonds it could buy; the ECB would renounce its seniority and be on a par with other creditors; and the bond buying would be sterilized.
He said OMTs were necessary to combat the debt crisis which he said looked set to continue to drag on the eurozone economy.
“OMTs will enable us to address severe distortions in government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro,” he said. “We will have a fully effective backstop to avoid destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for price stability in the euro area.” He insisted that the ECB was not acting outside its mandate, as Germany has argued, because the ECB would be buying bonds in the market, not funding national treasuries directly. “We are sure we are acting within our mandate,” he said. “Action in the primary market would be a violation, not secondary market.” Mr Draghi also devoted much of the press conference to emphasizing the “conditionality” that would be attached to OMTs. The ECB would only buy sovereign bonds of countries that had secured a bail-out agreement with Brussels - that would crucially come with conditions of economic reforms. Mr Draghi said that ECB intervention without action from national governmentss “would not be effective... we need both legs” for OMTs to work, he said. As a result he admitted OMTs relied on the first move by individual members to seek help - in particular Spain, which has resisted help because of the tough conditions. “Now it’s in the hands of Spain, in the hands of the governments of the euro area.” Stockmarkets and the euro climbed as traders welcomed the plan. Ranvir Singh, CEO of the market analysts RANsquawk, said: “To fly in the face of Germany’s wishes will not have been easy. For the Bundesbank, keeping inflation in check is an article of faith. Its president has made no secret of the fact that he regards the ECB plan to buy the debt of the Eurozone’s weaker members as the road to perdition. But Mr Draghi had left himself little option. Having earlier promised to do “whatever it takes” to save the Euro, the markets had expected nothing less than a definitive rescue plan." Glenn Uniacke, senior dealer at Moneycorp, said: “There was little surprise in today’s speech by Mario Draghi, this was underwhelming and money supply neutral. In revealing the bond-buying programme, Draghi has introduced a safe guard to cut the borrowing costs of debt-burdened eurozone members, but this is only a short-term patch to the enduring crisis.” The euro dipped but stock markets hit a five-month high, boosted by the ECB's new body-buying programme and strong US private-sector jobs growth. The FTSE 100 rose 2pc, Germany's DAX 2.7pc, France's CAC 2.7pc, Italy's MIB 3.8pc and Spain;s Ibex 4.4pc in late afternoon trading. In the US, the Dow Jones was up 1.7pc.
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06 September 2012 Written by

Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 6 September 2012

Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the President of the Eurogroup, Prime Minister Juncker, and by the Commission Vice-President, Mr Rehn. Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. Owing to high energy prices and increases in indirect taxes in some euro area countries, inflation rates are expected to remain above 2% throughout 2012, to fall below that level again in the course of next year and to remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon. Consistent with this picture, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remains subdued. Inflation expectations for the euro area economy continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Economic growth in the euro area is expected to remain weak, with the ongoing tensions in financial markets and heightened uncertainty weighing on confidence and sentiment. A renewed intensification of financial market tensions would have the potential to affect the balance of risks for both growth and inflation. It is against this background that the Governing Council today decided on the modalities for undertaking Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs) in secondary markets for sovereign bonds in the euro area. As we said a month ago, we need to be in the position to safeguard the monetary policy transmission mechanism in all countries of the euro area. We aim to preserve the singleness of our monetary policy and to ensure the proper transmission of our policy stance to the real economy throughout the area. OMTs will enable us to address severe distortions in government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro. Hence, under appropriate conditions, we will have a fully effective backstop to avoid destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for price stability in the euro area. Let me repeat what I said last month: we act strictly within our mandate to maintain price stability over the medium term; we act independently in determining monetary policy; and the euro is irreversible. In order to restore confidence, policy-makers in the euro area need to push ahead with great determination with fiscal consolidation, structural reforms to enhance competitiveness and European institution-building. At the same time, governments must stand ready to activate the EFSF/ESM in the bond market when exceptional financial market circumstances and risks to financial stability exist – with strict and effective conditionality in line with the established guidelines. The adherence of governments to their commitments and the fulfilment by the EFSF/ESM of their role are necessary conditions for our outright transactions to be conducted and to be effective. Details of the Outright Monetary Transactions are described in a separate press release. Furthermore, the Governing Council took decisions with a view to ensuring the availability of adequate collateral in Eurosystem refinancing operations. The details of these measures are also elaborated in a separate press release. Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Recently published statistics indicate that euro area real GDP contracted by 0.2%, quarter on quarter, in the second quarter of 2012, following zero growth in the previous quarter. Economic indicators point to continued weak economic activity in the remainder of 2012, in an environment of heightened uncertainty. Looking beyond the short term, we expect the euro area economy to recover only very gradually. The growth momentum is expected to remain dampened by the necessary process of balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors, the existence of high unemployment and an uneven global recovery. The September 2012 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area foresee annual real GDP growth in a range between -0.6% and -0.2% for 2012 and between -0.4% and 1.4% for 2013. Compared with the June 2012 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the ranges for 2012 and 2013 have been revised downwards. The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area are assessed to be on the downside. They relate, in particular, to the tensions in several euro area financial markets and their potential spillover to the euro area real economy. These risks should be contained by effective action by all euro area policy-makers. Euro area annual HICP inflation was 2.6% in August 2012, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, compared with 2.4% in the previous month. This increase is mainly due to renewed increases in euro-denominated energy prices. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, inflation rates could turn out somewhat higher than expected a few months ago, but they should decline to below 2% again in the course of next year. Over the policy-relevant horizon, in an environment of modest growth in the euro area and well-anchored long-term inflation expectations, underlying price pressures should remain moderate. The September 2012 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area foresee annual HICP inflation in a range between 2.4% and 2.6% for 2012 and between 1.3% and 2.5% for 2013. These projection ranges are somewhat higher than those contained in the June 2012 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. Risks to the outlook for price developments continue to be broadly balanced over the medium term. Upside risks pertain to further increases in indirect taxes owing to the need for fiscal consolidation. The main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker than expected growth in the euro area, particularly resulting from a further intensification of financial market tensions, and its effects on the domestic components of inflation. If not contained by effective action by all euro area policy-makers, such intensification has the potential to affect the balance of risks on the downside. Turning to the monetary analysis, the underlying pace of monetary expansion remained subdued. The annual growth rate of M3 increased to 3.8% in July 2012, up from 3.2% in June. The rise in M3 growth was mainly attributable to a higher preference for liquidity, as reflected in the further increase in the annual growth rate of the narrow monetary aggregate M1 to 4.5% in July, from 3.5% in June. The annual growth rate of loans to the private sector (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) remained weak at 0.5% in July (after 0.3% in June). Annual growth in MFI loans to both non-financial corporations and households remained subdued, at -0.2% and 1.1% respectively (both adjusted for loan sales and securitisation). To a large extent, subdued loan growth reflects a weak outlook for GDP, heightened risk aversion and the ongoing adjustment in the balance sheets of households and enterprises, all of which weigh on credit demand. Furthermore, in a number of euro area countries, the segmentation of financial markets and capital constraints for banks continue to weigh on credit supply. Looking ahead, it is essential for banks to continue to strengthen their resilience where this is needed. The soundness of banks’ balance sheets will be a key factor in facilitating both an appropriate provision of credit to the economy and the normalisation of all funding channels. To sum up, the economic analysis indicates that price developments should remain in line with price stability over the medium term. A cross-check with the signals from the monetary analysis confirms this picture. lthough good progress is being made, the need for structural and fiscal adjustment remains significant in many European countries. On the structural side, further swift and decisive product and labour market reforms are required across the euro area to improve competitiveness, increase adjustment capacities and achieve higher sustainable growth rates. These structural reforms will also complement and support fiscal consolidation and debt sustainability. On the fiscal front, it is crucial that governments undertake all measures necessary to achieve their targets for the current and coming years. In this respect, the expected rapid implementation of the fiscal compact should be a main element to help strengthen confidence in the soundness of public finances. Finally, pushing ahead with European institution-building with great determination is essential. We are now at your disposal for questions.
European Central Bank Directorate Communications Press and Information Division Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main Tel.: +49 69 1344 7455, Fax: +49 69 1344 7404 Internet: http://www.ecb.europa.eu
Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged.
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